*** READ ME ***

"Registering Predictions in Political Science"
PS: Political Science & Politics
Andrew Cesare Miller
millera@usna.edu

Code_Registering_Predictions.R

The R file with the code for reproducing the figures. The code relies on the following libraries: RColorBrewer; ggforce; and, ggplot2.

Fomin_etal_Data.csv

This dataset is the replication data of top international relations articles with predictions from Fomin, Ivan, Konstantin Kokarev, Boris Ananyev, Nikita Neklyudov, Anzhelika Bondik, Pavel Glushkov, Aliya Safina, et al. 2021. "International Studies in an Unpredictable World: Still Avoiding the Difficult Problems?" European Journal of International Relations 27 (1): 3–28. The data was retrieved from https://sage.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Appendix_2_IR_Predictions_Database1_Supplemental_material_for_International_studies_in_an_unpredictable_world_still_avoiding_the_difficult_problems_/12962136. This data is required for reproducing the Figure 1 in "Registering Predictions in Political Science."

Article_Predictions.csv

This dataset contains the results of predictions made in top international relations journals between 1992 and 2014 as compiled in the TRIP Journal Article Database. The predictions were extracted from twenty-seven articles identified by Fomin et al. (2021) to have made a prediction about a specific event during a specific timeframe. I extract all thirty-five predictions made in the articles and code them for accuracy. Predictions that include a specified temporal window that has yet to close or rely on a conditional factor that has not occurred are coded as a “To be determined” result. Predictions that do not include sufficient conceptual clarity to determine accuracy are coded as “Indeterminate.” Predictions in which an outcome has manifested are coded as either “correct” or “incorrect” depending on the result. 

Scholars_Twitter_Ukraine.csv

This dataset includes scholars with Twitter accounts plausibly having Ukraine-related posts. To identify scholars with a research focus on security and/or Europe, I searched among the Twitter (now, 𝕏) biographies for the 1,236 political science scholars listed in Bisbee et al. (2020). The biography search terms were "international relations," "IR," "conflict," "security," "SS" [security studies], "war," "europe," "russia," and "ukraine". From these search results, 82 scholars were selected for manual review of their tweets based on their research focuses specified in their biographies. See Bisbee, James, Jennifer Larson, and Kevin Munger. 2020. “#polisci Twitter: A Descriptive Analysis of How Political Scientists Use Twitter in 2019.” Perspectives on Politics 20 (3): 1–22. 


Twitter_Predictions.csv

This dataset includes tweets by conflict and security scholars sent prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (between January 1 and February 23, 2022) on Twitter. Tweets that contain prediction-related content on the invasion have been extracted and coded. Prediction-related content includes explicit predictions, judgments about policy with implied predictions, or claims about the accuracy of prior predictions. Tweets are listed in chronological order. 
